Crest-height distribution of nonlinear random waves     

Cuilin Li  Dingyong Yu  Yangyang Gao  Junxian Yang 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2010,9(1):31-36

The wave crest is an important factor for the design of both fixed and floating marine structures. Wave crest height is a dominant parameter in assessing the likelihood of wave-in-deck impact and resultant severe damage. Many empirical and theoretical distribution functions for wave crest heights have been proposed, but there is a lack of agreement between them. It is of significance to develop a better new nonlinear wave crest height distribution model. The progress in the research of wave crest heights is reviewed in this paper. Based on Stokes’ wave theory, an approximate nonlinear wave crest-height distribution formula with simple parameters is derived. Two sets of measured data are presented and compared with various theoretical distributions of wave crests obtained from nonlinear wave models and analysis of the comparison is given in detail. The new crest-height distribution model agrees well with observations. Also, the new theoretical distribution is more accurate than the other methods cited in this paper and has a greater range of applications.  相似文献   

密肋复合墙体的地震损伤极限概率分析     

田洁  姚谦峰  黄炜 《地震工程与工程振动》2008,28(4)

密肋复合墙体是密肋壁板结构体系的主要承载构件,本文根据32块密肋复合墙体在单调及低周往复循环荷载作用下的试验结果,结合我国现行规范的目标性能,提出了针对密肋复合墙体的三个损伤性能水平及相应的量化参数,研究了这种新型墙体的损伤模型及各性能水平的允许极限破坏指标的概率特性。结果表明,采用四种地震损伤模型计算的墙体屈服、极限、破坏状态的损伤指数,在给定的显著性水平下分别服从正态分布、对数正态分布或极值Ⅰ型分布,并得到了分布的统计参数,可为该类墙体基于损伤性能的可靠度分析提供依据和参考。  相似文献   

Modelling raindrop impact and splash erosion processes within a spatial cell: a stochastic approach   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ting Ma  Chenghu Zhou  Tongxin Zhu  Qiangguo Cai 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2008,33(5):712-723

A new approach is proposed to simulate splash erosion on local soil surfaces. Without the effect of wind and other raindrops, the impact of free‐falling raindrops was considered as an independent event from the stochastic viewpoint. The erosivity of a single raindrop depending on its kinetic energy was computed by an empirical relationship in which the kinetic energy was expressed as a power function of the equivalent diameter of the raindrop. An empirical linear function combining the kinetic energy and soil shear strength was used to estimate the impacted amount of soil particles by a single raindrop. Considering an ideal local soil surface with size of 1 m × 1 m, the expected number of received free‐falling raindrops with different diameters per unit time was described by the combination of the raindrop size distribution function and the terminal velocity of raindrops. The total splash amount was seen as the sum of the impact amount by all raindrops in the rainfall event. The total splash amount per unit time was subdivided into three different components, including net splash amount, single impact amount and re‐detachment amount. The re‐detachment amount was obtained by a spatial geometric probability derived using the Poisson function in which overlapped impacted areas were considered. The net splash amount was defined as the mass of soil particles collected outside the splash dish. It was estimated by another spatial geometric probability in which the average splashed distance related to the median grain size of soil and effects of other impacted soil particles and other free‐falling raindrops were considered. Splash experiments in artificial rainfall were carried out to validate the availability and accuracy of the model. Our simulated results suggested that the net splash amount and re‐detachment amount were small parts of the total splash amount. Their proportions were 0·15% and 2·6%, respectively. The comparison of simulated data with measured data showed that this model could be applied to simulate the soil‐splash process successfully and needed information of the rainfall intensity and original soil properties including initial bulk intensity, water content, median grain size and some empirical constants related to the soil surface shear strength, the raindrop size distribution function and the average splashed distance. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Truncation of the distribution of ground-motion residuals   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

Fleur O. Strasser  Julian J. Bommer  Norman A. Abrahamson 《Journal of Seismology》2008,12(1):79-105

Recent studies to assess very long-term seismic hazard in the USA and in Europe have highlighted the importance of the upper tail of the ground-motion distribution at the very low annual frequencies of exceedance required by these projects. In particular, the use of an unbounded lognormal distribution to represent the aleatory variability of ground motions leads to very high and potentially unphysical estimates of the expected level of shaking. Current practice in seismic hazard analysis consists of truncating the ground-motion distribution at a fixed number (ε _max) of standard deviations (σ). However, there is a general lack of consensus regarding the truncation level to adopt. This paper investigates whether a physical basis for choosing ε _max can be found, by examining records with large positive residuals from the dataset used to derive one of the ground-motion models of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. In particular, interpretations of the selected records in terms of causative physical mechanisms are reviewed. This leads to the conclusion that even in well-documented cases, it is not possible to establish a robust correlation between specific physical mechanisms and large values of the residuals, and thus obtain direct physical constraints on ε _max. Alternative approaches based on absolute levels of ground motion and numerical simulations are discussed. However, the choice of ε _max is likely to remain a matter of judgment for the foreseeable future, in view of the large epistemic uncertainties associated with these alternatives. Additional issues arise from the coupling between ε _max and σ, which causes the truncation level in terms of absolute ground motion to be dependent on the predictive equation used. Furthermore, the absolute truncation level implied by ε _max will also be affected if σ is reduced significantly. These factors contribute to rendering a truncation scheme based on a single ε _max value impractical.  相似文献   

考虑桩底沉渣的灌注桩可靠度分析方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李典庆  鄢丽丽 《岩土力学》2008,29(1):155-160

基桩的完整性检测不一定都能够检测到基桩中的缺陷,这些缺陷将会影响到基桩的安全性。为此,提出了考虑基桩可能出现缺陷时的基桩可靠度分析方法。以单桩桩底可能出现的沉渣缺陷为例,采用全概率理论将完整桩的失效概率和桩底含有沉渣的桩的失效概率有机地结合起来,得到了单桩的失效概率。采用基桩承载力折减系数来定量地考虑沉渣对基桩承载力的影响,并进一步推导了桩底含沉渣的基桩承载力偏差系数和变异系数的计算公式。算例分析表明,所提方法能够定量地反映基桩中可能出现的沉渣对基桩可靠度的影响。桩底沉渣对桩的可靠指标具有明显的不利影响。随着沉渣厚度和桩的直径的增加,桩底含有沉渣的桩的可靠指标逐渐减小;桩的可靠指标随着桩长的增加逐渐增大。如果不考虑桩可能出现沉渣的质量问题,基桩的安全性将明显地被高估。基桩的完整性检测可以有效地提高基桩的安全性。  相似文献   

隧道结构系统可靠度研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

宋玉香  景诗庭  朱永全 《岩土力学》2008,29(3):780-784

在结构系统可靠度研究的基础上,根据隧道结构的特点,应用概率理论及工程结构系统可靠度分析方法,对整个隧道结构系统可靠度进行了探讨。隧道结构系统可靠度研究包括衬砌断面可靠度、在各种不同围岩压力作用下衬砌断面可靠度、同种围岩地段衬砌可靠度以及整座隧道可靠度的研究。整座隧道可看作由两端洞门和洞内不同围岩地段隧道衬砌所组成的串联系统,任一围岩地段衬砌和任一洞门结构的破损,都认为该隧道破损,则运用“概率网络估算技术”（又称PNET法）可求得整座隧道系统的失效概率与可靠指标。通过实例计算得到,整座隧道系统的总体可靠指标比所有单段结构的可靠指标都要低。  相似文献   

二元函数逼近在斜坡可靠度分析中的应用研究     

范雷  唐辉明  胡斌  倪俊 《岩土力学》2008,29(3):624-628

极限平衡分析方法是斜坡稳定性评价中的常用方法,在长期的工程实践中积累了丰富的经验,但其不能考虑斜坡岩土体中实际存在的不确定性,在应用中具有一定的局限性。可靠度分析方法可有效地考虑斜坡系统内的不确定性和相关性,但因状态函数偏导数的求解比较困难,使可靠度分析方法在实际中应用不便。为解决上述问题,根据二元函数插值逼近原理,在矩形区域上构造拉格朗日不完全双二次多项式逼近状态函数,从而近似地计算状态函数的偏导数,求得状态函数的均值和方差,并利用精度较高的一次二阶矩方法来计算斜坡的可靠指标和破坏概率。据鄂西恩施地区马堡营滑坡实例分析表明,引入二元函数插值逼近的一次二阶矩方法计算结果与剩余推力法及Monte-carlo模拟方法结果一致,其精度可满足工程需求。  相似文献   

二次电流场多次叠加概率成像   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

闫永利  赵永贵  陈本池  陈谮  马晓冰  孔祥儒 《地球物理学报》2008,51(5):1544-1550

基于地下电流场的积分公式,离散化的二次电流场被分解为电性不连续界面上的一系列点电荷电场的代数和.单位正点电荷电场被引入作为空间扫描函数（SDS）,积累电荷出现的概率（COP）函数定义为二次电流场与SDS的互相关.为对概率成像结果进行定量分析解释,提出了规范的积累电荷出现的概率（NCOP）函数.通过应用有限元算法对2D地电模型进行二次电流场合成,实现了二次电流场的多次叠加概率成像.结果表明对均匀半空间中赋存地质异常体的电性结构,概率成像方法对地下异常体的空间位置有较好的指示作用.  相似文献   

砂井地基固结的概率设计     

李小勇  钟文华  周英才 《岩土力学》2005,26(10):1535-1540

将概率统计理论引入砂井地基固结问题的分析中,克服了现行“确定性”分析和设计法的不足。对砂井地基固结的概率分析进行了系统全面地研究,提出了砂井地基固结概率设计的设计系数法。该法用设计系数将砂井地基的固结概率设计与常规设计联系起来。径向固结系数的设计值等于其标准值与设计系数的乘积,也等于其均值与中心设计系数乘积。推导了径向固结系数为对数正态分布和伽玛分布时设计系数的计算公式,并据此研究了设计系数的变化规律。中心设计系数是径向固结系数变异系数的减函数,而是失效概率的增函数。研究了径向固结系数标准值的计算方法。为便于工程查用,提供了设计系数图表。提出了砂井地基固结概率设计的一般步骤,并用算例说明了该法在实际工程中的应用。  相似文献   

沈阳市降水概率预报服务系统   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

路爽  廖国进  李喜有  侯亚红 《气象与环境学报》2006,22(1):68-71

沈阳市降水概率预报服务系统是在日本数值预报的基础上应用多种统计方法建立MOS预报方程,对其预报结果应用概率回归集成制作降水概率预报。TS评分结果表明:MOS预报的降水确率高于日本数值预报,MOS集成预报的结果在各种MOS预报结果平均偏上的水平。概率预报的Brier评分结果表明:在MOS综合基础上的概率回归(REEP)方法得出的概率预报结果较为理想。  相似文献